Thursday, September 16, 2010
Economic trends forecast
This Excel template predicts trends, creating a mathematical function of time by simple regression techniques. In other words, trying to explain a dependent variable (also called endogenous) according to the dependent variable time (exogenous or explanatory). After entering data we can see the graph and trends calculated, choosing the model with a greater degree of fit (coefficient of determination higher). The selected function can be used to make predictions of the variable under study (y), assigning values in function to the time variable (x). It can also be seen in the graph, where there is the trend by adding more data of time (years, months, ...) in the DATE column. The estimation is useful for time series forecasting (economic or otherwise) when all you know is the data series over time.