Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Brown's double exponential smoothing prediction

Exponential smoothing is obtained by a moving average with weights declining in geometric progression. Brown's double exponential smoothing, includes a trend component which is useful for forecasting series with or without trend but no seasonality. To achieve optimal prediction we need an ALFA coefficient that minimizes squared error, which is achieved by trying different values between zero and one in the following Excel model.
This technique is used to forecast economic series such as: sales, revenues, costs, expenses, production, wages, economic indicators...

Free Download: browns_double.xls

Unlocked template: exceleconomy@gmail.com