Exponential smoothing is obtained by a moving average with weights declining in geometric progression. Brown's double exponential smoothing, includes a trend component which is useful for forecasting series with or without trend but no seasonality. To achieve optimal prediction we need an ALFA coefficient that minimizes squared error, which is achieved by trying different values between zero and one in the following Excel model.
This technique is used to forecast economic series such as: sales, revenues, costs, expenses, production, wages, economic indicators...
Free Download: browns_double.xls
Unlocked template: exceleconomy@gmail.com
Unlocked template: exceleconomy@gmail.com
4 comments:
Hi, can you enable the link for the excel model?
Thank You
Hello,
link is already available, enjoy it
thank you
his economic expectations for this year was wrong what mediocre professional, he must be fired for this.
Hi,
can you do the same xla file for simple exponential smoothing method?
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